TE KŪITI received close to double the normal amount of rain in November.
NOVEMBER has been wet, much wetter than the “near normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, most likely to be near normal in the north of the North Island, and equally likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions” forecast last month. That’s a three month forecast, Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said. While Te Kūiti experienced close to double the normal amount, about 193% of its normal November rainfall by the 24th at 225mm, there was still time over three months for that to balance out to a normal rainfall – as long as the heavy rain did not continue. Those for a three-month period so the outlook that came out at the beginning of November actually covers November, December, and January, Ben said. “At the end of January when lyou ook back at that three-month period as a whole, your rainfall range should be over three months as a whole,” he said. “Over the course of that three-month period you are going to have ebbs and flows. You are going to have wet spells, dry spells, but what we are saying is when you close the book on that three month period that’s probably the range you might expect for rainfall. “It doesn’t tell you much about that distribution factor so yes you could have a wet November and that could be followed up by near normal rainfall in December and just as an example, below normal rainfall in January and then your three months as a whole ends up near normal. So those can be a little bit difficult to interpret because of that factor. “What we are basically trying to do is give people enough information to make more informed decisions. So what regions might expect more rainfall than normal which ones might expect less, which ones could potentially be at risk from dryness and drought – to give farmers a bit of a heads up. “I guess continuing on that theme as we start to look ahead for the next few weeks, it does look like, at least for the rest of November, it will probably still see some rainfall with regularity for the Waikato region including Te Kūiti.” But there cold be a reprieve from the rain in the early part of December, the first week or ten days. “That could be some welcome news,” he said. “It doesn’t look all that hot just yet, but it does look like we might start to see patterns that are a little bit drier. Mid-December or third week of the month there could be an opportunity for some more rain in the region.” With La Nina conditions continuing round the New Zealand coast there could be some similarities with last summer, Ben said. With warm seas around the coast he expected conditions to warm up again as we continued through December. The warm seas were also fuel for tropical cyclones. There were a couple last summer and autumn, Cyclone Dovi in February which caused an estimated $15 million damage to Waitomo District roads, and another in the autumn. “We see these systems form, but when they track southwards, it’s a bit like a windscreen wiper tracking back annd forth. Farmers can only hope for a drier December.
