Reduced flock expected, down to only 17.5 million sheep, but beef and sheep farmers continue to improve productivity.
SHEEP and beef farmers’ performance remains high, but their confidence in the future of the sector is very low for some – according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s (B+LNZ) Lamb Crop 2022 report. “Despite variable climatic conditions nationwide, sheep farmers have again shown their ability to perform consistently,” B+LNZ’s Chief Economist Andrew Burtt said. “This is a continuation of the improving productivity and performance of sheep and beef farms as farmers operate under demanding conditions including drought for some and a wet spring for others. “One interesting factor was a reduction in the number of hoggets mated, particularly in the southern South Island, as farmers were constrained by feed conditions and did not want to put at risk the performance of their whole flock both short and long-term.” The number of lambs processed in the 2022-23 season was forecast to decrease 1.6 percent to 17.5 million head, while the average carcase weight may be slightly up on 2021-22. B+LNZ’s Economic Service estimated the number of lambs tailed in spring 2022 decreased by 2.6 percent, or 588,000 head, on the previous spring to 22 million head. With a small decline in breeding ewe numbers, down 1.4 percent, 22 million lambs tailed in spring 2022 compared with an average of 23.9 million head over the previous 10 years. Labour shortages for meat processors were an issue for the red meat sector and a concern for farmers as they entered summer. The survey showed the sector was not yet seeing the impact on stock numbers caused by the significant number of sheep and beef farms sold into forestry, particularly carbon-only farming. This was because of a significant lag between farm sales and trees being planted. Reduced stock numbers were expected soon, the report said. “This is a major issue negatively affecting farmers,” B+LNZ CEO Sam McIvor said. “Information about farmer sentiment was also gathered as part of this survey, and it’s clear that confidence in the future of the sector is very low for some. Farmers are feeling it from all sides and are rightly concerned about the future. “Government inaction on issues like carbon farming has been frustrating and the speed, scale, practicality, and disconnectedness of the environmental reforms has been unreasonable and overwhelming for farmers. This is compounded by concerns that commodity prices may fall in the coming year.” The report showed some farmers indicating they were considering exiting the sector because of those concerns, which could also impact livestock numbers in the future and have flow-on impacts to employees, businesses, and communities in the regions, Sam said. McIvor says B+LNZ is again calling for urgent action by the Government on the ETS, which was incentivising the wholesale land use change in carbon farming.
The report details:
A lambing percentage of 130.3 percent means 130 lambs were born per hundred ewes.
A decrease is forecast in the number of lambs processed for export in the first quarter of the 2022-23 season (from October to December). The total number of lambs processed for export in the 2022-23 season is expected to decrease by 1.6 percent from 17.8 million head in 2021-22 to 17.5 million head.
The number of adult sheep processed in the 2022-23 season is expected to decrease 2.1 percent to 3.5 million head.
Early season pricing for lamb is behind spring 2021 with expectations for published prime lamb prices to decrease weekly until beyond Christmas. Farmers are concerned that prices will decline faster than has occurred in recent years, putting pressure on farm budgets.
The outlook for global sheepmeat is moderately positive for the 2022-23 season. Growing global demand for lamb is apparent, however cost of living concerns in key markets are causing prices to teeter. B+LNZ’s New Season Outlook 2022-23, which was released in October, forecasts a decrease in farmgate lamb and prime sheep prices from last season.
The B+LNZ Lamb Crop 2022 report is available on the B+LNZ website here. North Island
The number of lambs tailed in the North Island decreased 3.3 percent (361,000 head) to 10.6 million head. Northland
For the northern North Island, drought conditions and a lack of feed impacted ewes during mating and pregnancy. Breeding ewe numbers were down for all North Island regions (2 percent on average). East Coast
Conditions were favourable for the East Coast during summer/autumn and good ewe condition led to an improvement in lambing percentages. Subsequently the East Coast has struggled with persistent wet weather. South Island
Meanwhile, the total number of lambs in the South Island decreased 2 percent (227,000 head) to an estimated 11.4 million head. Marlborough/Canterbury
After several climatically difficult seasons, farmers rebuilt their sheep flocks in Marlborough/Canterbury in 2021-22, including breeding ewes. Otago/ Southland
The number of ewes mated and the average ewe lambing percentage were down in Otago/Southland.
Drought in Southland was the critical factor in a decreased lamb crop. Across the South Island, the number of breeding ewes to ram decreased by 0.8 percent while the number of lambs from ewe hoggets decreased 2.7 percent to 1,036,000, equivalent to 4.7 percent of total lambs. Fewer ewe hoggets were put to the ram, particularly in drought-affected areas.
